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Tea party: How big is it, and where is it based?

“Boom Towns” have been reliably Republican in presidential races going back to 2000 – and even before then. But Barack Obama got to within four percentage points of Sen. John McCain in these counties in 2008. Those gains were probably temporary, given the current strength of tea-party support.
The other big tea-party numbers are in the rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” counties and in the “Military Bastion” counties, which are located near bases for the armed forces. Both of these community types have more than 2.8 tea-party members per 10,000 people. The “Bastions” in particular have suffered as a steady string of troop deployments has left them unsteady.
Next down the list are the wealthier “Monied ’Burb” counties and the “Mormon Outposts,” which have large numbers of LDS church members.
Much was made last week of a survey in The New York Times on tea-party sympathizers, which found them to be wealthier than average and whiter. Nearly all the community types above would fall into the whiter-than-average camp, although income is more complicated. The “Boom Towns” and “Monied ’Burbs” have higher-than-average household incomes, but the others do not.
Who’s missing the party?
Maybe just as interesting in this breakdown of tea-party members is what communities score lower. One might, for instance, expect to see more members in the aging “Emptying Nests” or socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenters.” Both lean conservative, but both groups appear lower on this list.
As many have already noted, there is something of a divide between the tea party and more religious conservatives. Some in the “Epicenters,” for example, feel the group is not focused enough on social issues.
Also, it may be that people in the “Emptying Nests,” where computer skills are often lacking, simply haven’t registered with the websites.
It’s also worth noting that the small-town “Service Worker Centers” sit low on the list. Those places do tend to lean right, but they don’t seem very engaged with the tea party yet.
As one might predict, the two community types with the highest percentage of African-Americans score lowest in terms of tea-party membership: the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” counties and the less-wealthy “Minority Central” counties.
Even if the 67,000 or so members we have identified overall understates the number of tea partyers by a factor of 10, the number would still be fairly small in relation to the electorate as a whole.
That may change, of course. It’s still very early in the 2010 campaign. But the tea-party movement, though growing, is probably not yet a major force in American politics.
In many places, it is a reiteration of conservative values, but it has yet to grow into something larger.
See also:
'Tea party' eyes big prize: the 2010 midterm elections Groups:
- Dante Chinni's blog
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