Tea party: How big is it, and where is it based?

Printer-friendly versionSend to friendIf you turned to a cable news channel in recent weeks, you may have seen a large group of “tea party” protesters, signs in hand, expressing outrage over government tyranny. But how big are those groups really? The tea-party protest on tax day in Washington, D.C., may have looked big on camera, but pan back, and you would have seen about 3,000 to 4,000 people in attendance. That’s hardly a groundswell. To get an understanding of how big the loosely affiliated movement is and where it’s based, Patchwork Nation has combed through online directories to find people who have registered with tea-party organizations - not a perfect system but one that captures the overwhelming majority of registered members. The geographic snapshot: There are roughly 67,000 members in counties across America, but the biggest producers of tea-party members in Patchwork Nation, per capita, are the “Boom Town” counties. These places experienced rapid growth around 2000 – and the worst part of the housing crash that followed. That list of members does not include people who say they sympathize with the tea parties or their goals. Adding in those people would swell the group’s ranks and possibly change its geographic distribution. But the numbers suggest a few things. First, the tea-party movement, despite the large amount of coverage it has received, is probably not the force that media outlets have portrayed it as – at least not yet. Second, the places it is most strongly tied to tend to lean Republican and have been hit hard economically in recent years. Places to plan a party By far, the “Boom Town” counties have the largest number of tea partyers per capita – 3.27 for every 10,000 people. That may not sound massive, but no other community type is above 3. apatchwork21_g1.gif “Boom Towns” have been reliably Republican in presidential races going back to 2000 – and even before then. But Barack Obama got to within four percentage points of Sen. John McCain in these counties in 2008. Those gains were probably temporary, given the current strength of tea-party support. The other big tea-party numbers are in the rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” counties and in the “Military Bastion” counties, which are located near bases for the armed forces. Both of these community types have more than 2.8 tea-party members per 10,000 people. The “Bastions” in particular have suffered as a steady string of troop deployments has left them unsteady. Next down the list are the wealthier “Monied ’Burb” counties and the “Mormon Outposts,” which have large numbers of LDS church members. Much was made last week of a survey in The New York Times on tea-party sympathizers, which found them to be wealthier than average and whiter. Nearly all the community types above would fall into the whiter-than-average camp, although income is more complicated. The “Boom Towns” and “Monied ’Burbs” have higher-than-average household incomes, but the others do not. Who’s missing the party? Maybe just as interesting in this breakdown of tea-party members is what communities score lower. One might, for instance, expect to see more members in the aging “Emptying Nests” or socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenters.” Both lean conservative, but both groups appear lower on this list. As many have already noted, there is something of a divide between the tea party and more religious conservatives. Some in the “Epicenters,” for example, feel the group is not focused enough on social issues. Also, it may be that people in the “Emptying Nests,” where computer skills are often lacking, simply haven’t registered with the websites. It’s also worth noting that the small-town “Service Worker Centers” sit low on the list. Those places do tend to lean right, but they don’t seem very engaged with the tea party yet. As one might predict, the two community types with the highest percentage of African-Americans score lowest in terms of tea-party membership: the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” counties and the less-wealthy “Minority Central” counties. Even if the 67,000 or so members we have identified overall understates the number of tea partyers by a factor of 10, the number would still be fairly small in relation to the electorate as a whole. That may change, of course. It’s still very early in the 2010 campaign. But the tea-party movement, though growing, is probably not yet a major force in American politics. In many places, it is a reiteration of conservative values, but it has yet to grow into something larger. See also: 'Tea party' eyes big prize: the 2010 midterm elections

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[...] base is already

[...] base is already somewhat fired up to begin with – witness the enthusiasm in the “tea party” [...]

[...] time Blog Archive -

[...] time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

[...] Science Monitor’s

[...] Science Monitor’s Patchwork Nation blog reported that the entire Tea Party movement consists of just 67,000 members. PBS NewsHour cross-posted the story on its The Rundown blog the same day. The next day, CNN [...]

Thanks Aunt Robyn for you

Thanks Aunt Robyn for you comments, I am up early thinking the same thing you are saying. I am not a tea party person, I have been a registered voter over 40 years and a contributor to my community. Contribution is not about saving people from reality, or feeding people on holidays to make ourselves feel good. Contribution is about creating an environment where people can thrive and contribute on their own. I am not against health care for all, and I think we are all responsible to take care of our health. It isn't an either or. Where is the pride in our own accomplishments? Where is longterm view? What I see now in our local leadership is more a personal attempt to glory, their own agenda and a lack of longterm view. Those of us who live within our means and take care of our responsibilities are not walking away from our mortgages or blaming someone else for the situation.

I am 62 and I know the

I am 62 and I know the feelings that have erupted were simmering for a long long time. I was always unsettled when: I found our loan wasn't at our bank, why is the bank selling stocks,Why are people getting loans with 5% down, then 0% down, why are loans being given that were worth more than the house. Why were young people buying homes and sometimes multiple homes with the idea of making a killing. It goes on and on, 40 years of seeing the common sense and prudent behavior disappearing. Now, it is not your fault if you lost your house, your leased car, all your credit cards. Every time I listen to 'please enjoy the music' on some ones cell phone that I know lives paycheck to paycheck it makes wonder if our generations will ever have 'saving sense' again. The government will take care of you, you will be a child of the government, never grow up. I sense the tea party is that we now have a sense of fear that we have gone way to far, for decades, and we don't know how to stop. Where is the leader who will give us a plan that will get the country to financial stability?

[...] Science Monitor’s

[...] Science Monitor’s Patchwork Nation blog reported that the entire Tea Party movement consists of just 67,000 members. PBS NewsHour cross-posted the story on its The Rundown blog the same day. The next day, CNN [...]

[...] time Blog Archive -

[...] time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

[...] Science Monitor’s

[...] Science Monitor’s Patchwork Nation blog reported that the entire Tea Party movement consists of just 67,000 members. PBS NewsHour cross-posted the story on its The Rundown blog the same day. The next day, CNN [...]

"This project is based on

"This project is based on geography (identifying types of place) for that to work we have to have places to work with. That means we need some kind of geographic identifier for members and, for our purposes, that means registrations. As we say in the piece, this is not a perfect system, but for what we are doing it’s the best thing out there." Your piece is a lie,and is nowhere near the number of people that showed up.

Why the need to get some

Why the need to get some silly, and you know, inaccurate count of people at Tea Party protests? I have been to a couple and was amazed by their numbers. They werent punk assed college kids with parental issues but a wide scope of Americans. They were intelligent, most college educated, and respectful. I would bet they knew the Constitution a lot better than the media that covered them. They picked up garbage when the rallies ended. You demonize them. You try and minimalize them. "moneyed burbs', 'Mormon outposts.' How would a conservative be treated if they said 'Muslim outpost.' The hypocrisy of the Left floats, sails, streams. You can say say there are few of us, but bet your credibility on it. If your estimates are right, the Repubs will get defeated. Put your credibility on the line.

John B. Yes, I can explain,

John B. Yes, I can explain, but it's not a 100 or 200 word story. I'm working on a blog post now about this.

Underestimate all you want.

Underestimate all you want. The true count will be in November. For every person who shows up at a tea party there are many many people who can't make it for a number of reasons but will be showing up at the polls. Kid yourself, that is fine. Just because everyone is coming out in the media saying this is all hype and exaggeration, doesn't make it so. I want to watch them on election night explain the exaggerated numbers voting against the way this country has been going since the Dems took control in 2007 and Obama in 2009.

[...] the TPers are mostly

[...] the TPers are mostly well-educated, moderate to upper-income, and white folks from some of the very communities that benefitted the most — and then were hit the hardest — by our collective... It looks to me that the middle class, who have been losing ground over the last twenty years except [...]

Well, for whatever reason,

Well, for whatever reason, you cannot post comments directly on the site for the NewsBusters Web site, where at least one blogger claims we are out to discredit the Tea Party. Or at least that's the case for non-registered people, which I am until I get approved. When that happens I will post this there as well. But to answer some concerns... There is no grand conspiracy behind trying to isolate "registered Tea Party members." No one here is trying to lower their numbers. This project is based on geography (identifying types of place) for that to work we have to have places to work with. That means we need some kind of geographic identifier for members and, for our purposes, that means registrations. As we say in the piece, this is not a perfect system, but for what we are doing it's the best thing out there. We clearly acknowledge in the piece that there are people who support the Tea Party movement who are not registrants and that adding them in would swell the group's ranks, probably considerably. But what would adding "supporters" mean? What do they support? Two things for everyone to keep in mind. First, it is fair to say that there is a different level of support that goes with being a registrant of the Tea Party movement. It shows a deeper level of commitment. That is no small thing. The Tea Party movement is very board and, as I have had people tell me in the communities I talk to around the country, the issues truly driving the various Tea Party movements in different places are different. In some places it's health care reform, in others it's the TARP, in other it's the stimulus. In other words, it's hard to call it a single cohesive movement, that's something upon which I think many members themselves would agree. These registrants are likely the strongest supporters, and we think that should not be discounted. Second, love or hate the member model, we have a baseline for the group in the Spring of 2010. We hope, in coming months, we'll be able to track its growth. The goal here is to get a better understanding of the group. If it shows big growth, and it may, some who dislike this analysis may decide to embrace it. And, of course, that's fine. We do think that these numbers show that, as of now, the Tea Party movement is not a massive force in American politics. That could change -- as we say in the piece. The American political scene in 2010 is a rapidly evolving thing and anyone who thinks they firmly grasp what it will be in November standing in April is probably in for some surprises. Thanks and please keep the comments civil. Dante

NewsBusters: Media Pounces on

NewsBusters: Media Pounces on Bizarre Study Claiming Only 67,000 in Tea Party http://newsbusters.org/blogs/alex-fitzsimmons/2010/04/23/media-pounces-b...

[...] time Blog Archive -

[...] time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

[...] time Blog Archive -

[...] time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

Certain people get addicted

Certain people get addicted to their anger. It makes them feel powerful. Left, Right, tea baggers. Every side has people who think whoever is in government is a big bad daddy tyrant. Lucky for the media that no matter who is in power (President), half the country feels disenfranchised and defiant. Media makes millions covering the rancor like a sports cast. Fox is fanradio for the currently disenfranchised, as MSNBC was in from 2003-2008. Until people get hip to how their partisanship and hatred is provoked by exploiters like Roger Ailes (Fox) and whoever his counterpart is on the left, nothing will get done in Washington. It's a shame so many Americans are dupes for these media provocations. They can't tell the difference between journalism, gossip, sports, entertainment and propaganda.

[...] time Blog Archive -

[...] time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

[...] Patchwork Nation, which

[...] Patchwork Nation, which was launched by the Christian Science Monitor and funded by the Knight Foundation, arrived at 67,000 by poring over publicly available information to identify people who actually registered with Tea Party organizations. CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - TRENDING: Counting Tea Party activists causes conflict

One thing for sure...the tea

One thing for sure...the tea partiers aren't a bright bunch lot of anger and frustration, but not much gumption... the only people exited about this 'movement' (as in bowel) are the folks selling the signs, posters and tee shirts, lol

Hey JTapp, Thanks for the

Hey JTapp, Thanks for the civil tone. No need to be skeptical. If you take into account people who say they "support" the Tea Party, the number gets much bigger -- as I point out in the post. My argument is there is a difference between "support" and joining, a different level of committment. When you broaden it out to "Tea Party causes" or "traveling to hear Sarah Palin" the numbers undoubtedly grow, but to what end. One of the points of the Tea Party is it is a very loose affiliation. I know from talking to people in different places, which I do on this project, that the "tea party" really means different things in different locales. That's fine. I just think as a cohesive movement, its impact is much more limited than many believe it to be. -Dante

Thanks for the clarification

Thanks for the clarification about your numbers compared to the NY Times' poll numbers. I'm a little skeptical b/c the size of the movement-- number of people who sympathize or are contributing money to Tea Party candidates-- is much larger than the numbers of names on the rolls. For example, in my county you count five Tea Party members. I could probably tell you who they are, and I would include their extended families although maybe only the wife is signed up somewhere. And I could name a few hundred people who are sending money to Tea Party causes or traveling to hear Sarah Palin talk about it, etc.

[...] The Rundown Blog at

[...] The Rundown Blog at PBS has a map of the Tea Party, adapted from a database created by Patchwork Nation that aggregated names of Tea Partiers registering in various online [...]

Pablo, If there were 30,000

Pablo, If there were 30,000 in Washington I have not seen it reported anywhere. If there was and I missed it, I'm sorry. Please provide a link? BTW, I have not seen 5,000 reported for Freedom Plaza either. Fox News said 3,000 - 4,000. Thanks, -Dante

Nice try Dante. There were 18

Nice try Dante. There were 18 tax day tea party events 4/15/2010 in California, a "liberal bastion", with numbers quadruple of what you claim the nationwide total to be. I, another Californian, was in DC on the 15th. There were 5000 in Freedom Plaza at a Lunch time rally, and another 30,000 at the Washington monument rally in the evening. Sorry, but as much as you attempt to diminish the taxpaying, responsible, constitution respecting people that make up the movement, it only serves to make you and your ilk less and less relevant. Cheers

David, First, it was 18

David, First, it was 18 percent, according to the NY Times. That's the number everyone cites. But that is a measure of self-labeled "supporters." The number who had attended an event or given money to the Tea Parties was only 4 percent. But, second, this count doesn't measure support - which is particularly amorphous with the Tea Parties' broad missions. This measures actual members. I'm not trying to marginalize anyone. I'm telling you what the numbers say.... -Dante

[...] entry is cross-posted

[...] entry is cross-posted from the Christian Science Monitor’s Patchwork Nation [...]

Gee, and I thought polls

Gee, and I thought polls clearly showed that 22% or more of Americans support the TEA Party movement. Your article is disingenuous at best, Dante, and at worst, a further attempt to marginalize the movement. Get used to us. Remember the words of Gandhi: 'First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win.' We have staying power. And we intend to win.

Nice Try...Your numbers are

Nice Try...Your numbers are way too LOW....you will never stop the teaparty until we have transformed this country back toward its original vision....not the current European big government direction....All our ancestors came here for a reason....We understand that reason and we will NEVER wane...we have been here all along....we have sat back too long giving government the benefit of the doubt and now we are drawing a line in the sand.

You libs just keep wondering

You libs just keep wondering what is going on... and then you can wonder what happened. Scott Brown, Marco Rubio, and more to come.

I wonder where all this

I wonder where all this outrage was during the Bush Administration when W spent and borrowed to the point of ruin? Funding two wars and borrowing from China, sounds like sound fiscal policy to me. As to our liberties being threatened under whose watch was the Patriot Act enacted? The economic meltdown was the result of the Bush administrations bungling and now Obama is left to clean up the mess and everyone expects he should have done it yesterday. Read your history people and Palin is not the answer, she is only getting rich on everyone's misplaced outrage.

I don't understand what the

I don't understand what the tea party people are so angry about. As Rob says above, they claim President Obama is a socialist, which he most certainly is not. Reasonable people can differ over the need for health care reform, but the tea party people behave as if it's some sort of cancer on the body politic. A few thousand gun-rights supporters descended on Washington last week to defend their 2nd Amendment rights (as they interpret them) even though those rights have not been abridged and are not about to be abridged. In fact, the right to bear arms has been expanded in recent years, not diminished. Is it the TARP? Is it the stimulus bill? The bank and corporate bail-outs? It's one thing to think these are not good policies. It's another to take to the streets with wild-eyed, foaming-at-the-mouth anger. Can someone please explain?

In preportion to the overall

In preportion to the overall electorate, every group looks small. The key part of your statistics you omitted or forgot to calculate is the relative size of the tea party movement you counted compared to other movements of its type. Also, you don't have to register with ANY party to still be a tea party member at heart and believe and vote for conservative candidates that match tea party ideals. It's a grass roots movement, by definition there is no true central hub or some kind of figurehead leading the group. The tea party is lead by a simple list of ideals and a love of country.

If you want to count this

If you want to count this group as a third party it will not happen. It will go the way of the American party under George Wallace. It will go the way of the Bull moose party of Teddy Roosevelt. It will disapear just like Ross Perot did and his third party movement as well as the Ralph Nader party. It will cause one or may be two elections to go the other way that they want as it will split one party's vote. America will never have Three major party's in its political arena.

I suspect that the tea

I suspect that the tea parties have already began to wane.

obvious wishful thinking by a

obvious wishful thinking by a democrat.

I consider myself a Tea Party

I consider myself a Tea Party member although I have never been to a rally or officially joined. I met my future father-in-law last weekend for the first time and the thing we quickly found we had in common was our love of country, hatred of what is being done to our nation by the socialist, and identification with the Tea Party movement. If you are counting Tea Party members from the crowds you see marching and carrying signs, well, I guess you are missing me and my future dad. November....and then 2012.